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Authors: Andres F. Jola-Sanchez and Juan Camilo Serpa

Publication: Management Science, 67(10):6457-6479

Abstract:

We study how armed conflicts affect inventory across firms鈥� production facilities. We track 38,916 production facilities鈥攊ncluding plantations, livestock farms, and factories鈥攊n war-torn Colombian regions; we also collect the data of 5,138 attacks performed by the two rebel groups involved in Colombia鈥檚 civil war. To obtain exogenous variation in the conflict intensity, we use a difference-in-differences model that hinges on the peace process between the government and one of the guerrilla groups. We find that when the conflict intensity increases by one order of magnitude, inventory decreases by up to 10.38%. Firms, however, barely reduce finished inventory during war; they mainly reduce raw and work-in-process inventory. To offset this inventory reduction, firms increase their cash holdings鈥攖hat is, they shift their working capital from physical inventory to liquid assets. The location of the facility moderates the effect of war: when a facility is close to a distribution center鈥攈ence, inventory travels short distances鈥攖he firm responds to violence by aggressively reducing inventory; when a facility is far from a distribution center, the firm reacts less aggressively to war.

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