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UID:20251121T033646EST-2097vR5FA5@132.216.98.100
DTSTAMP:20251121T083646Z
DESCRIPTION:Title: Challenges in modeling the transmission dynamics of chil
 dhood diseases\n\nAbstract: Mathematical models of childhood diseases are 
 often fitted using deterministic methods under the assumption of homogeneo
 us contact rates within populations. Such models can provide good agreemen
 t with data in the absence of significant changes in population demography
  or transmission\, such as in the case of pre-vaccine era measles. However
 \, accurate modeling of the transition period after the start of mass vacc
 ination has proved more challenging. This is true even in the case of meas
 les which has a well understood natural history and a very effective vacci
 ne. We demonstrate how the dynamics of homogeneous and age-structured mode
 ls can be similar in the absence of vaccination\, but diverge after vaccin
 e roll-out. We also present some fundamental differences in deterministic 
 and stochastic methods to fit models to data\, and propose techniques to f
 it long term time series with imperfect covariate information. The methods
  we develop can be applied to many types of complex systems beyond those i
 n disease ecology.\n\n \n
DTSTART:20251124T210000Z
DTEND:20251124T220000Z
LOCATION:Room 1104\, Burnside Hall\, CA\, QC\, Montreal\, H3A 0B9\, 805 rue
  Sherbrooke Ouest
SUMMARY:Felicia Magpantay (Queen's University)
URL:/mathstat/channels/event/felicia-magpantay-queens-
 university-369118
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