BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:-//132.216.98.100//NONSGML kigkonsult.se iCalcreator 2.20.4// BEGIN:VEVENT UID:20260707T202449EDT-1996AUF3VR@132.216.98.100 DTSTAMP:20260708T002449Z DESCRIPTION:James A. Hanley\, Epidemiology and Biostatistics\, 91ºÚÁÏÍø The calculation of probabilities is central to statistical inferences\; howeve r\, researchers\, especially those who are not trained in probability\, of ten have difficulty (or err) when setting up correct probability calculati ons. Probabilities of seemingly rare events that are assessed after the fa ct are especially problematic. In an early report\, I described three exam ples where probability specialists themselves have been 'near-sighted' in assessing or predicting usual and unusual events generated by state lotter ies. In one example\, a lottery official offered 'data' which one should e xpect from a fair lottery\; unfortunately\, the logic used to 'predict the usual' was faulty. In the two others\, the unusual (what one should not o ften expect) was calculated to be much more unusual than it really was. Si nce then\, the story of a fourth -- and seemingly very unusual -- lottery event\, and the official statistical reaction to it\, were carried in worl dwide publications. Again\, the reported reaction was based on faulty prob ability calculations. These four faulty lottery calculations\, and several new ones involving unusual births and birthdays\, prompted me to bring to gether in one place my 'case series' and share it with a larger audience. I argue that these variants of a common 'probability blind spot' are not s ufficiently appreciated and that we need to be very skeptical of after-the -fact probability calculations. These miscalculations have serious implica tions for the interpretation of high-throughput or high-dimensional data\, and indeed for the interpretation of the scientific literature in general .\n DTSTART:20080214T193000Z DTEND:20080214T203000Z LOCATION:Duff Medical Building\, CA\, QC\, Montreal\, H3A 2B4\, 3775 rue Un iversity SUMMARY:Jumping to coincidences: Defying odds in the realm of the preposter ous URL:/channels/event/jumping-coincidences-defying-odds- realm-preposterous-28561 END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR